Climate Models Project Afroalpine Habitat Shrinkage by Mid-21st Century

Rising temperatures are squeezing this wolf against mountaintops.

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🤯 Did You Know (click to read)

Afroalpine ecosystems are among the most climate-sensitive habitats in Africa due to their narrow thermal tolerance.

Climate projections for East Africa indicate that warming trends may reduce suitable Afroalpine habitat for Ethiopian wolves by the mid-21st century. As temperatures rise, vegetation zones shift upward, compressing cool grasslands against fixed mountain summits. Rodent prey distribution may also shift in response to altered rainfall patterns. The wolf already occupies one of the highest ecological bands on the continent. Further upward migration offers limited refuge. Peer-reviewed modeling studies suggest that even moderate warming could reduce available territory significantly. Habitat contraction compounds fragmentation already caused by agriculture. The threat operates gradually but relentlessly.

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💥 Impact (click to read)

Climate-driven compression interacts with disease and genetic isolation. Smaller habitat areas concentrate individuals, potentially increasing transmission risk during outbreaks. Conservation planning must integrate climate adaptation strategies alongside vaccination programs. Protected areas alone may not guarantee future suitability if ecological conditions shift beyond current parameters. Mitigation efforts at national and international levels indirectly shape the species’ prospects. The wolf’s survival intersects with global carbon trajectories.

From a human vantage point, a few degrees of warming may seem incremental. For a high-altitude specialist confined to narrow temperature bands, those degrees translate into lost terrain. Each upward shift subtracts viable grassland from the bottom. Mountains do not grow taller in response. The predator that once adapted to cold plateaus now faces a ceiling defined by rock. Climate change narrows survival vertically.

Source

ScienceDirect – Climate Change and Afroalpine Species

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